The UN says food prices are up world wide by a lot. They're up a lot in my local grocery store. They are probably up a lot in yours.
One of my cousins runs a farm up north of here along with a couple of inlaws and relatives. A big farm, thousands of acres. I called him a month or so ago to get the inside scoop. He says their suppliers told them to expect much higher fertilizer prices but also possible shortages. Meanwhile replacement part for their equipment are on back order. Their farm, like most big farms, is highly mechanized. What does that all mean? It means their food will cost more to produce and therefore cost more to the consumer. It means they will produce less food, which will also drive up costs to the consumer. And if they have the wrong part break, they will produce WAY less food.
Yesterday a guy on Twitter said fertilizer costs at his big family farm have gone from $300,000 to $800,000. I called my cousin to check. No, he said, their prices are still only up around 30%. But their supplier has been stockpiling. If not, it would be even more expensive. You may want to chew on the idea that he’s happy their fertilizer bill is going up only 30%.
And then there’s gas.
Don't discount that kind of anecdote. Local knowledge matters a lot.
Rising costs is a growth industry.
But if we want to be more general, there are three different trends that are flowing together to jack up food prices and cause food shortages. Three different streams flow together, pretty soon you are looking at a river.
Shortages
First there is the ongoing supply chain breakdown and all its consequences. (Don't kid yourself that it got fixed). The general breakdown affects food, because fertilizer, parts, shipping. There are also some specific problems in the food supply chain though. The decades in which the government has been driving centralization of meatpacking is causing additional shortages and costs.
Inflation
Then there's inflation. We all know it. Its worse than the official sources let on.
Economic Kablooie
Finally, there's the Russia invasion. That's a breadbasket region. But more importantly, the sanctions may be driving a rapid unscheduled disassembly of the integrated global financial system. The economy might just trip.
What Does It Forebode?
Food prices will keep going up. There will be random sporadic shortages. And probably a recession.
Breadlines, prolonged food shortages of various kinds, and rolling blackouts are on the table. Local breakdowns in order are on the table. Not guaranteed—none of this is guaranteed-but its good to see the possibility and take some simple steps.
These are not apocalyptic scenarios. These aren’t scenarios where all communication goes down and cannibal bands roam the streets. But these are hard times scenarios.
Don’t panic and go crazy, unless you feel that strong inner light calling you to do so. But otherwise, just a few simple steps. Remember the steader principle – a little bit is often good enough. Be optimistic and creative.
This is what you should do. In each of the three categories below, pick one thing you aren’t already doing, and do it. We have done all these, they are simple and doable and forgiving of mistakes. They are perfect for you to start one now.
Grow some food:
Grow pumpkins and other winter squash. They are easy to grow, simple to weed, high in calories and nutrition and flavor, and they store extremely well.
Raise some poultry. Its easy to do and pretty forgiving. Chickens are a great way to convert grass and scraps-- or dry, easy-to-store feed --into eggs.
Get a milk goat. They don’t take up much space, they are small and therefore easier to handle, and they provide fresh milk from dry, storable feed.
The next Steader newsletter is going to expand on these. But it will still be short and to the point and very actionable!
Put some food away:
Get some sacks of rice and beans. These are cheap and store easily. You can literally do nothing, just leave them in bags, and in many areas they’ll still be good for several months minimum.
Make sure you have plenty of aluminum foil on hand, and some cardboard. It is extremely easy to improvise an adequate solar oven if the power goes out.
If you find cheap cuts of beef on sale, do some jerky in your oven. Its easy and more forgiving than most online instructions make it sound. It lasts for awhile, especially in your fridge.
Make some tallow. It stores extremely well and is extremely valuable when there are food shortages.
The short and sweet Steader newsletter after next will be on this topic.
Reach out
The steader principle of fostering human-scale relationships isn’t just for the spiritual benefits. Its also a time-tested principle for weathering hard times.
Meet your neighbors.
Meet your local master gardeners or local farmers.
Join your volunteer fire department or police reserve or fraternal organization or church.
Talk to you local grocery store about bulk food (this one is interesting, we’ll explain).
Pray about what you can do to prepare and follow through on any feelings or ideas you get in the prayer.
Also going to be a short newsletter.